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Saturday, February 11, 2012

Wait and see

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5778; (P) 1.5831; (R1) 1.5870; More.
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment with focus on 1.5729 support. With 1.5729 intact, there is no confirmation of topping in GBP/USD yet and rise from 1.5234 is in favor to continue. Above 1.5928 will target 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). Break will confirm that whole decline from 1.6746 has finished at 1.5234 already. However, below 1.5729 will flip bias back to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 1.5660) first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. At this point, we're favoring the case that such consolidation is either finished with three waves to 1.6746, or five waves as a triangle at 1.6165. Deeper decline is in favor to 1.4229 key support and decisive break there should extend the long term down trend through 1.3503 low. Meanwhile, strong rebound ahead of 1.4229, or a break of 1.6165, will dampen the immediate bearish view and extend the consolidation from 1.3503 instead.

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